Top 10 Kentucky Derby horses for 2008
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1. Smooth Air
2. Z Fortune
3. Colonel John
4. Pyro
5. Big Brown
6. Adriano
7. Eight Belles
8. Visionaire
9. Cool Coal Man
10. Tale of Ekati
Similarly, I can see Smooth Air being first or second with a furlong to go in the Derby. If that does happen, it will put him in a prime position to possibly win because 43 of the last 45 Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run, the two exceptions being Grindstone and Giacomo.
Z Fortune earned a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure in the Arkansas Derby. There is a concern that he might regress off such a strong effort, especially with just three weeks between races.
Maybe Z Fortune really doesn’t want to go 1 1/4 miles. He had the lead with a furlong to go in the Risen Star only to be overtaken by Pyro. Z Fortune could not get by Gayego in the final furlong of the Arkansas Derby.
Colonel John just looks like a rock solid contender. I certainly can’t argue with anybody who thinks he’s going to win. He has the 2-year-old foundation and a pair of 1 1/8-mile victories under his belt at 3. He’s finished first or second in each of his six lifetime starts. It looks like Colonel John will relish 1 1/4 miles. He’s certainly bred for such a trip. Colonel John is by Tiznow out of a Turkoman mare. Tiznow is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a 1 1/4-mile race. Point Given was out of a Turkoman mare. Turkoman won a pair of Grade I races at 1 1/4 miles. Point Given won the Grade I Travers Stakes at 1 1/4 miles and the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles by 12 1/4 lengths.
“Media reports estimated Pyro’s final quarter-mile in Saturday’s Risen Star Stake at 22.6 seconds. The natural pessimist in me found it difficult to believe a 3-year-old could finish that strongly -- even during a last-to-first rally -- so I used a digital timer to get the real story of his stretch clocking.
“Here it is:
“Pyro actually ran his final quarter in about 22.3 seconds.”
In the Grade II Louisiana Derby, Pyro had to await room turning into the stretch and early in the stretch run. When a hole materialized with a little less than a furlong to go, he charged to the front and quickly pulled away to prevail by three lengths.
Pyro’s had more than two preps this year, unlike the Florida Derby winner (Big Brown), the Santa Anita Derby winner (Colonel John), the Wood Memorial winner (Tale of Ekati), the Blue Grass Stakes winner (Monba) and the Illinois Derby winner (Recapturetheglory). Obviously, Pyro’s biggest negative is his Blue Grass debacle. He finished 10th on the Blue Grass. Perhaps a line can be drawn through that race because it was on Polytrack. Still, such a poor performance in Pyro’s final race before the Derby is cause for concern. The last Derby winner to finish worse than fourth in his or her final prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
Going into the Derby, Big Brown appears to be the most talented horse. He’s undefeated in three starts, winning by margins of 11 1/4, 12 3/4 and five lengths. Big Brown obviously is an extremely talented colt. But I wrote those exact same words about Curlin prior to last year’s Kentucky Derby. Curlin, like Big Brown, went into the Kentucky Derby undefeated and untested in three lifetime starts. But having only three lifetime starts is a high hurdle. The last time a horse won the Derby with only three career starts was the great filly Regret in 1915 while Woodrow Wilson was in the White House. There also is some concern about Big Brown being able to win a 1 1/4-mile race as a son of Boundary, who was a sprinter.
In his only start on the dirt, Adriano ran by far his worst race, finishing ninth in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 24. Was that clunker because of running on the dirt? Was it because he became fractious before the race? And will he be able to keep from becoming unruly before the huge Churchill Downs crowd?
Based on her 2008 Beyer Speed Figures (100, 99, 96, 91), Eight Belles not only belongs in the Derby, she is a bona fide contender. In all four of her races this year, she’s looked as if she will do just fine going 1 1/4 miles. Her paternal grandsire, Unbridled, did just fine going 1 1/4 miles when he won the Derby in 1990. As mentioned earlier for Smooth Air, if Big Brown loses due to his lack or experience or some other reason, the door then is open for someone else to win. The Beyer Speed Figures indicate that someone could be Eight Belles. There also is the concern of Eight Belles lugging in during the stretch run of the Grade II Fantasy Sakes at Oaklawn Park. She lugged in again while coming home in her five-furlong workout in :58 1/5 at Churchill Downs last Sunday. This will be Eight Belles’ first start against colts. No filly has ever won the Derby without having previously raced against colts.
Another positive for Visionaire is his trainer, Michael Matz, who sent out Barbaro to win the Derby in 2006. Based on Visionaire’s breeding (a son of Grand Slam out of a French Deputy mare), I’m not sold that he can win a 1 1/4-mile race. This concern is accentuated by the fact that Visionaire has not finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race. Since 1955, only four horses have won the Derby without doing that.
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KEY KENTUCKY DERBY FACTORS
In 1999, I came up with various key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks from a historical standpoint in terms of class, stamina, style and precedence. When a horse doesn’t qualify in one of the 10 categories, he or she gets a strike.
Here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had since 1999:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes)
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (1 strike)
2007 Smart Sense (1 strike)
Based on what has happened in the last nine years, I’d say there is roughly a 78 percent chance the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner will have zero strikes or one strike. The following 2008 Kentucky Derby entrants are in that boat:
ZERO STRIKES
Adriano
Smooth Air
Z Fortune
ONE STRIKE
Big Truck
Colonel John
Cool Coal Man
Cowboy Cal
Eight Belles
Pyro
Tale of Ekati
Visionaire
Z Humor
Based on the last nine years, I’d say there is about a 22 percent chance the 2008 Kentucky Derby winner will have two strikes. These 2008 Kentucky Derby candidates are on that list:
TWO STRIKES
Big Brown
Gayego
Monba
I toss out any 2008 Kentucky Derby candidate with three or more strikes. They are:
THREE STRIKES
Anak Nakal
Bob Black Jack
Court Vision
Denis of Cork
Recapturetheglory
Here are my 10 key Kentucky Derby factors:
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk and Sunny’s Halo have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
Recapturetheglory gets a strike.
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)
Bob Black Jack gets a strike.
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 43 of the last 45 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam, Carry Back, Cannonade, Gato Del Sol, Unbridled and Sea Hero, with Canonero II unknown.)
Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Denis of Cork, and Z Humor each get a strike.
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse did not get passed in the final furlong in either of his or her last two races.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way, Cannonade, Foolish Pleasure, Ferdinand and Silver Charm, with Canonero II unknown.)
Bob Black Jack, Cool Coal Man, Cowboy Cal, Gayego and Recapturetheglory each get a strike.
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King, Sea Hero, Charismatic and Giacomo.)
Big Truck, Eight Belles, Pyro and Visionaire each get a strike. For all four, it is their only strike. Anak Nakal and Denis of Cork also each get a strike.
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Barbaro in 2006 have been the only exceptions. They each had made five starts before the Derby.)
Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Monba and Gayego each get a strike.
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in any of his or her races at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers at 3 before winning the Derby. Strike the Gold did have blinkers removed in his second start at 3. Sea Hero had blinkers removed for the Derby after racing with blinkers in the Blue Grass.)
Anak Nakal, Bob Black Jack and Court Vision each get a strike. (Bob Black Jack and Court Vision are expected to add blinkers for the Derby. Not adding blinkers for the Derby would bring either Bob Black Jack or Court Vision down to two strikes.)
8. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old.)
All 20 entrants qualify.
9. THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exception: Funny Cide is the only gelding to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
All 20 entrants qualify.
10. THE SUFFICIENT EXPERIENCE AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has made at least three starts at 3 before the Derby.) (Exceptions: Of the last 55 horses to run in the Derby with fewer than three preps, 53 have failed. The only exceptions since Jet Pilot in 1947 were Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Street Sense in 2007.)
Big Brown, Colonel John, Court Vision, Monba, Recapturetheglory and Tale of Ekati each get a strike.
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